Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been considerable research on how regional and country-level forecasting can be used to anticipate required hospital resources. We add to and build on this work by focusing on ward-level forecasting and planning tools for hospital staff during the pandemic. We present an assessment, validation, and deployment of a working prototype forecasting tool used within a modified Traffic Control Bundling (TCB) protocol for resource planning during the pandemic. We compare statistical and machine learning forecasting methods and their accuracy at one of the largest hospitals (Vancouver General Hospital) in Canada against a medium-sized hospital (St. Paul's Hospital) in Vancouver, Canada through the first three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of British Columbia. Our results confirm that traditional statistical and machine learning (ML) forecasting methods can provide valuable ward-level forecasting to aid in decision-making for pandemic resource planning. Using point forecasts with upper 95% prediction intervals, such forecasting methods would have provided better accuracy in anticipating required beds on COVID-19 hospital units than ward-level capacity decisions made by hospital staff. We have integrated our methodology into a publicly available online tool that operationalizes ward-level forecasting to aid with capacity planning decisions. Importantly, hospital staff can use this tool to translate forecasts into better patient care, less burnout, and improved planning for all hospital resources during pandemics.

Distinguishing science from pseudoscience in commercial respiratory interventions: an evidence-based guide for health and exercise professionals.

Respiratory function has become a global health priority. Not only is chronic respiratory disease a leading cause of worldwide morbidity and mortality, but the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened attention on respiratory health and the means of enhancing it. Subsequently, and inevitably, the respiratory system has become a target of the multi-trillion-dollar health and wellness industry. Numerous commercial, respiratory-related interventions are now coupled to therapeutic and/or ergogenic claims that vary in their plausibility: from the reasonable to the absurd. Moreover, legitimate and illegitimate claims are often conflated in a wellness space that lacks regulation. The abundance of interventions, the range of potential therapeutic targets in the respiratory system, and the wealth of research that varies in quality, all confound the ability for health and exercise professionals to make informed risk-to-benefit assessments with their patients and clients. This review focuses on numerous commercial interventions that purport to improve respiratory health, including nasal dilators, nasal breathing, and systematized breathing interventions (such as pursed-lips breathing), respiratory muscle training, canned oxygen, nutritional supplements, and inhaled L-menthol. For each intervention we describe the premise, examine the plausibility, and systematically contrast commercial claims against the published literature. The overarching aim is to assist health and exercise professionals to distinguish science from pseudoscience and make pragmatic and safe risk-to-benefit decisions.

A Motivational Interviewing Intervention to Improve Adherence to ACEIs/ARBs among Nonadherent Older Adults with Comorbid Hypertension and Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension and diabetes mellitus are independent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. Due to the cardioprotective nature of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), they are recommended for patients with comorbid hypertension and diabetes. However, poor adherence to ACEIs/ARBs among older adults is a major public health concern. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a telephonic motivational interviewing (MI) intervention conducted by pharmacy students among a nonadherent older population (≥ 65 years old) with diabetes and hypertension. METHODS: Patients continuously enrolled in a Medicare Advantage Plan who received an ACEI/ARB prescription between July 2017 and December 2017 were identified. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify distinct patterns of ACEI/ARB adherence during the 1-year baseline period: adherent, gaps in adherence, gradual decline, and rapid decline in adherence. Patients from the three nonadherent trajectories were randomized into MI intervention or control group. The intervention consisted of an initial call and five follow-up calls administered by MI-trained pharmacy students and tailored to the baseline ACEI/ARB adherence trajectories. The primary outcome was adherence to ACEI/ARB during the 6- and 12-month periods post-MI implementation. The secondary outcome was discontinuation, defined as no refills for ACEI/ARB during the 6- and 12-month periods post-MI implementation. Multivariable regression analyses examined the impact of MI intervention on ACEI/ARB adherence and discontinuation while adjusting for baseline covariates. RESULTS: A total of 240 patients in the intervention group and 480 patients as randomly selected controls were included in this study. At 6 months, patients receiving the MI intervention had significantly better adherence (ß = 0.06; p = 0.03) compared with the controls. Linear and logistic regression models also showed patients in the intervention group were more likely to be adherent than controls within 12 months of intervention implementation (ß = 0.06; p = 0.02 and OR: 1.46; 95% CI 1.05-2.04, respectively). MI intervention did not have any significant impact on the ACEI/ARB discontinuation. CONCLUSION: Patients who received the MI intervention were more likely to be adherent at 6 and 12 months following the intervention initiation, despite gaps in the follow-up calls due to COVID-19. Pharmacist-led MI intervention is an effective behavioral strategy to improve medication adherence among older adults and tailoring the intervention to past adherence patterns may enhance the intervention effectiveness. This study was registered with the United States National Institutes of Health (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT03985098).

Multiplex Detection of Antibody Landscapes to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)/Influenza/Common Human Coronaviruses Following Vaccination or Infection With SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza viruses continue to co-circulate, representing 2 major public health threats from respiratory infections with similar clinical presentations. SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccines can also now be co-administered. However, data on antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza coinfection and vaccine co-administration remain limited. METHODS: We developed a 41-plex antibody immunity assay that can simultaneously characterize antibody landscapes to SARS-CoV-2/influenza/common human coronaviruses. We analyzed sera from 840 individuals (11-93 years), including sera from reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-positive (n = 218) and -negative (n = 120) cases, paired sera from SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (n = 29) and infection (n = 11), and paired sera from influenza vaccination (n = 56) and RT-PCR-confirmed influenza infection (n = 158) cases. Last, we analyzed sera collected from 377 individuals who exhibited acute respiratory illness (ARI) in 2020. RESULTS: This 41-plex assay has high sensitivity and specificity in detecting SARS-CoV-2 infections. It differentiated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (antibody responses only to spike protein) from infection (antibody responses to both spike and nucleoprotein). No cross-reactive antibodies were induced to SARS-CoV-2 from influenza vaccination and infection, and vice versa, suggesting no interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza antibody responses. However, cross-reactive antibodies were detected between spike proteins of SARS-CoV-2 and common human coronaviruses that were removed by serum adsorption. Among 377 individuals who exhibited ARI in 2020, 129 were influenza positive; none had serological evidence of SARS-CoV-2/influenza coinfections. CONCLUSIONS: Multiplex detection of antibody landscapes can provide in-depth analysis of the antibody protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the context of other respiratory viruses, including influenza.

App-Based Rehabilitation in Back Pain, a Systematic Review.

Smartphones and their associated applications are used frequently by patients and clinicians alike. Despite the technology being widely accessible, their use to aid in rehabilitation is yet to be adopted. The SARS CoV-2 pandemic has presented an opportunity to expedite their integration given the difficulty patients currently have in accessing healthcare. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic literature review on the use of smartphone rehabilitation applications compared to standard physiotherapy for back pain. We conducted a search of Medline/Pubmed and google databases using the search terms [APP] AND [[Orthopaedic] OR [Neurosurgery]], following the PRISMA guidelines. All prospective studies investigating rehabilitation applications for back pain or following spine surgery were included. A total of nine studies met the inclusion criteria which investigated 7636 patients, of which 92.4% were allocated to the interventional group (n = 7055/7636) with a follow up of 4 weeks to 6 months. All except one study reported on patients experiencing back pain on average for 19.6 ± 11.6 months. The VAS-pain score was presented in all studies without significance between the interventional and control group (p = 0.399 before and p = 0.277 after intervention). Only one research group found significantly higher improvement in PROMs for the application group, whereas the remaining showed similar results compared to the control group. Using application-based rehabilitation programs provides an easily accessible alternative or substitute to traditional physiotherapy for patients with back pain. Given that smartphones are so prevalent in activities in our daily lives, this will enhance and improve rehabilitation if patients are self-dedicated and compliant.

T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 in unexposed South African women.

Background: A potential explanation for the fact that the high rate of infection of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa did not translate into high rates of severe illness and death may be the presence of cross-reactive immunity induced by common cold coronaviruses (CCoV). Methods: We used SARS-CoV-2 peptide pools and whole virus antigen to stimulate peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected pre-2020 from South African women. Dual-colour FluoroSpot assay was used to measure interferon gamma (IFNγ) and interleukin 2 (IL2) production. Results: Among the 97 study participants, IFNγ responses were observed in 29.9% of the women and IL2 among 39.2%. Overall, 51.6% of women demonstrated response to at least one stimulant. Conclusion: We demonstrate the presence of cross-reactive immunity to SARS-CoV-2, which might have been induced by past exposure to CCoV.

T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 in unexposed South African women: [version 1;peer review: 1 approved]

Background: A potential explanation for the fact that the high rate of infection of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa did not translate into high rates of severe illness and death may be the presence of cross-reactive immunity induced by common cold coronaviruses (CCoV). Methods: We used SARS-CoV-2 peptide pools and whole virus antigen to stimulate peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected pre-2020 from South African women. Dual-colour FluoroSpot assay was used to measure interferon gamma (IFNγ) and interleukin 2 (IL2) production. Results: Among the 97 study participants, IFNγ responses were observed in 29.9% of the women and IL2 among 39.2%. Overall, 51.6% of women demonstrated response to at least one stimulant. Conclusion: We demonstrate the presence of cross-reactive immunity to SARS-CoV-2, which might have been induced by past exposure to CCoV.

National Summer Undergraduate Research Project (NSURP): A Virtual Research Experience to Deliver REAL (Retention, Equity, Access, and Life-Changing) Outcomes for Underrepresented Minorities in STEM.

Summer undergraduate research experiences (SUREs) provide important onramps to secondary STEM graduate degrees and subsequent careers. Studies demonstrate that these experiences increase the likelihood of students advancing to a graduate-level STEM degree, positively impact STEM identity and confidence, and imbue a sense of professional belonging. In 2020, COVID-19 shutdowns eliminated many in-person SUREs. In response, we launched the National Summer Undergraduate Research Project (NSURP). While NSURP addressed an immediate need for a flexible research experience, we found that this model extends access to underrepresented minorities because it provides authentic research experiences for students who are unable to travel to a research location, and/or who have familial responsibilities that necessitate a flexible work model, and/or students facing financial challenges. What began as an emergency summer research program for undergraduates to address laboratory closures resulted in what we believe is a necessary and normalized addition to the undergraduate STEM training and preparation repertoire.

Ankle Fracture and Length of Stay in US Adult Population Using Data From the National COVID Cohort Collaborative

Background: The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) is an innovative approach to integrate real-world clinical observations into a harmonized database during the time of the COVID-19 pandemic when clinical research on ankle fracture surgery is otherwise mostly limited to expert opinion and research letters. The purpose of this manuscript is to introduce the largest cohort of US ankle fracture surgery patients to date with a comparison between lab-confirmed COVID-19–positive and COVID-19–negative. Methods: A retrospective cohort of adults with ankle fracture surgery using data from the N3C database with patients undergoing surgery between March 2020 and June 2021. The database is an NIH-funded platform through which the harmonized clinical data from 46 sites is stored. Patient characteristics included body mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and smoking status. Outcomes included 30-day mortality, overall mortality, surgical site infection (SSI), deep SSI, acute kidney injury, pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, sepsis, time to surgery, and length of stay. COVID-19–positive patients were compared to COVID-19–negative controls to investigate perioperative outcomes during the pandemic. Results: A total population of 8.4 million patient records was queried, identifying 4735 adults with ankle fracture surgery. The COVID-19–positive group (n=158, 3.3%) had significantly longer times to surgery (6.5 ± 6.6 vs 5.1 ± 5.5 days, P = .001) and longer lengths of stay (8.3 ± 23.5 vs 4.3 ± 7.4 days, P < .001), compared to the COVID-19–negative group. The COVID-19–positive group also had a higher rate of 30-day mortality. Conclusion: Patients with ankle fracture surgery had longer time to surgery and prolonged hospitalizations in COVID-19–positive patients compared to those who tested negative (average delay was about 1 day and increased length of hospitalization was about 4 days). Few perioperative events were observed in either group. Overall, the risks associated with COVID-19 were measurable but not substantial. Level of Evidence: Level III, retrospective cohort study.

Introduction to the Themed collection: Public sector employment relations in turbulent times

We introduce a themed collection of articles examining how the public sector has responded to, and been impacted by, the COVID-19 crisis. Although the pandemic has affected the roles, functions, economies, governance and structures of public sectors, this themed collection focuses on public sector employment relations. Authors examine significant areas which have been subject to accelerated change stemming from the pandemic. Building on decades of public sector reform, these changes impact public sector enterprise bargaining, terms and conditions of employment, working arrangements and practices, and the relationship between public servants and their employer. The articles in this collection provide important insights into the longer-term influences of the COVID-19 pandemic for public sector workforces. The collection also raises questions around whether the positive lessons from this crisis can be sustained to help manage serious crises in the future, or whether the public sector will slip back into a state of unpreparedness.JEL Codes: J45, J5, J81

Core Competencies to Promote Consistency and Standardization of Best Practices for Digital Peer Support: Focus Group Study.

BACKGROUND: As digital peer support is quickly expanding across the globe in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, standardization in the training and delivery of digital peer support can advance the professionalism of this field. While telehealth competencies exist for other fields of mental health practice, such as social work, psychiatry, and psychology, limited research has been done to develop and promote digital peer support competencies. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to introduce the coproduction of core competencies that can guide digital peer support. METHODS: Peer support specialists were recruited through an international listserv and participated in a 1-hour virtual focus group. A total of four focus groups were conducted with 59 peer support specialists from 11 US states and three countries. RESULTS: Analysis was conducted using the rigorous and accelerated data reduction (RADaR) technique, and 10 themes were identified: (1) protecting the rights of service users, (2) technical knowledge and skills in the practice of digital peer support, (3) available technologies, (4) equity of access, (5) digital communication skills, (6) performance-based training, (7) self-care, (8) monitoring digital peer support and addressing digital crisis, (9) peer support competencies, and (10) health literacy (emerging). The authors present recommendations based on these themes. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of digital peer support core competencies is an initial first step to promote the standardization of best practices in digital peer support. The established competencies can potentially act as a guide for training and skill development to be integrated into US state peer support specialist competencies and to enhance competencies endorsed by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA).

Evaluation of Self-Collected Midturbinate Nasal Swabs and Saliva for Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA.

Rapid and accurate diagnostic testing is essential to bring the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to an end. As the demand for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing continues to increase amid supply shortages, many laboratories have investigated the use of sources other than nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs. Saliva and midturbinate (MT) nasal swabs are attractive alternatives, as they allow for self-collection and are well accepted by patients. Saliva also requires limited consumables. We compared the performance of health care provider-collected NP swabs, patient-collected MT swabs, and patient-collected saliva specimens for SARS-CoV-2 detection using a laboratory-developed PCR assay that had received Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA. Of 281 total evaluable samples, 33 (11.7%) NP swabs, 33 (11.7%) MT swabs, and 32 (11.4%) saliva specimens were positive for SARS-CoV-2 following resolution of discordant results. Compared to NP swabs, saliva exhibited a sensitivity of 90.9% (30/33) and specificity of 99.2% (246/248), while patient-collected MT swabs exhibited a sensitivity of 93.9% (31/33) and specificity of 99.2% (246/248). When comparing to the consensus standard, the sensitivity was found to be 100% (31/31) for both NP and MT swabs and 96.8% (30/31) for saliva specimens, while specificity was the same in both NP swabs and saliva specimens (98.8% [247/250]) and 99.2% (248/250) for MT swabs. Pretreatment of saliva with proteinase K and heating for 15 min prior to extraction reduced the invalid rate from 26.7% (52/195) to 0% (0/195). These data show that midturbinate nasal swabs and saliva are suitable sources for self-collection in individuals who require routine monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Fragment binding to the Nsp3 macrodomain of SARS-CoV-2 identified through crystallographic screening and computational docking.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) macrodomain within the nonstructural protein 3 counteracts host-mediated antiviral adenosine diphosphate-ribosylation signaling. This enzyme is a promising antiviral target because catalytic mutations render viruses nonpathogenic. Here, we report a massive crystallographic screening and computational docking effort, identifying new chemical matter primarily targeting the active site of the macrodomain. Crystallographic screening of 2533 diverse fragments resulted in 214 unique macrodomain-binders. An additional 60 molecules were selected from docking more than 20 million fragments, of which 20 were crystallographically confirmed. X-ray data collection to ultra-high resolution and at physiological temperature enabled assessment of the conformational heterogeneity around the active site. Several fragment hits were confirmed by solution binding using three biophysical techniques (differential scanning fluorimetry, homogeneous time-resolved fluorescence, and isothermal titration calorimetry). The 234 fragment structures explore a wide range of chemotypes and provide starting points for development of potent SARS-CoV-2 macrodomain inhibitors.

Learning from the first wave: Lessons about managing patient flow and resource utilization on medical wards at providence health during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We report the successful implementation of a modified Traffic Control Bundling (TCB) protocol called "Red, Yellow and Green" on the inpatient medical units at St. Paul's Hospital in Vancouver, Canada during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The modified TCB protocol demonstrates an important example on how hospitals can rapidly reorganize operational and clinical processes to reallocate existing capacity to minimize exposure, improve traffic flow and reduce nosocomial transmissions of COVID-19 to health care workers (HCWs) and other patients. Preliminary evidence demonstrates the benefits on how an existing facility can be redesigned for adjustable ward capacity to provide disease containment under a context of uncertainty of disease transmission and varying patient load. Important lessons in preparation for the evolution of the pandemic fall into categories of risk management, capacity and demand management.

IgG Seroconversion and Pathophysiology in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection.

We investigated the dynamics of seroconversion in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. During March 29-May 22, 2020, we collected serum samples and associated clinical data from 177 persons in London, UK, who had SARS-CoV-2 infection. We measured IgG against SARS-CoV-2 and compared antibody levels with patient outcomes, demographic information, and laboratory characteristics. We found that 2.0%-8.5% of persons did not seroconvert 3-6 weeks after infection. Persons who seroconverted were older, were more likely to have concurrent conditions, and had higher levels of inflammatory markers. Non-White persons had higher antibody concentrations than those who identified as White; these concentrations did not decline during follow-up. Serologic assay results correlated with disease outcome, race, and other risk factors for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Serologic assays can be used in surveillance to clarify the duration and protective nature of humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Ideas for supporting student-centered stem learning through remote labs: a response.

This paper is in response to the article entitled "Identifying potential types of guidance for supporting student inquiry when using virtual and remote labs in science: a literature review" by Zacharia et al. (2015). In their review, Zacharia et al. (2015) adopted de Jong and Lazondo's (2014) framework of five inquiry phases for online labs: orientation, conceptualization, investigation, conclusion, and discussion. Zacharia et al. reviewed the literature on Computer-supported Inquiry Learning (CoSIL), and identified best practices for each phase. They concluded, for example, that the orientation/conclusion/discussion phases received the least amount of guidance, while there were many more tools and strategies for providing guidance in the conceptualization/investigation phases. In this paper, we adopt the same inquiry framework as Zacharia et al. (2015) and report strategies that we learned from STEM faculty about how they supported and guided virtual student lab-based learning in these five phases during the recent COVID-19 shutdown. While Zacharia et al. identified tools and processes for enabling all five inquiry phases, add additional practical examples of faculty implementing these phases online as part of COVID-19 emergency remote teaching, and we provide insights for extending the 5-phase framework for future research.

mSphere Highlights Black In Microbiology Week.

The inaugural Black In Microbiology Week (#BlackInMicro) is 28 September 2020 through 4 October 2020. Its mission is to "showcase the presence and accomplishments of Black microbiologists from around the globe, connect Black microbiologists with one another and foster a sense of community among them, and provide a forum for the discussion of racial disparities in microbiology and its subfields." Participation in this event will happen primarily over Twitter through the hashtag #BlackInMicro and over Zoom through registration on the website https://blackinmicrobiology.org/ An additional mission of Black In Microbiology Week is to amplify black scientists. Today, mSphere does this by presenting two mSphere of Influence commentaries from Black In Microbiology co-lead organizers Ariangela J. Kozik ("mSphere of Influence: frameshift-a vision for human microbiome research" [mSphere 5:e00944-20, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1128/mSphere.00944-20]) and Kishana Taylor ("mSphere of Influence: that's racist-COVID-19, biological determinism, and the limits of hypotheses" [mSphere 5:e00945-20, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1128/mSphere.00945-20]).